Will Eliud Kipchoge Win the 2023 Boston Marathon?

On Monday, an estimated 30,000 runners will take on the iconic 26.2-mile Boston Marathon, but all eyes will be on one runner in the line-up of elites: Eliud Kipchoge.

Will Kipchoge win the 2023 Boston Marathon?

He won his first marathon 10 years ago. 

And he's been racking up wins and setting records ever since.

Here's what you need to know about the GOAT of marathon running before go-time on Monday.

Eliud Kipchoge holds the current marathon world record

Eliud Kipchoge set a new marathon world record at the Berlin Marathon last year, finishing in 2:01:09.

Last year at the BMW Berlin Marathon, Kipchoge won the 26.2-mile race and set a new marathon world record.

  • His time: 02:01:09
  • His average mile pace: 04:37

He ticked off the miles running through the streets of Berlin, in near-perfect weather conditions.

By the time he reached Berlin's Brandenburg Gate, he crossed the finish line six minutes ahead of second-place finisher Mark Korir of Kenya.

He also broke his own marathon world record previously set in 2018 when he finished the Berlin Marathon in 2:01:39.

🏃‍♂️Will Eliud Kipchoge win the Boston Marathon?

Here's who he's up against:

  • Boston Marathon course record. Geoffrey Mutai of Kenya holds the Boston Marathon course record of 2:03:02. He won the 26.2 miles race in 2011, and his record still stands.
  • Only two elites in the Boston Marathon line-up have ran a marathon faster than the course record: Evans Chebet of Kenya (2:03:00) and Gabriel Geay of Tanzania (2:03:00)
  • Herpasa Negasa is certainly a contender. His fastest marathon is 2:03:40, less than a minute behind the Boston Marathon course record. 
  • And there's about a dozen more elite marathon runners in this year's Boston Marathon within striking distance of the record.

Kipchoge ran 26.2 miles in 1:59:40 on a closed course in Austria in 2019

Eliud Kipchoge ran 26.2 miles in 1:59:40 in Austria on a closed course in 2019.

In 2019, Eliud Kipchoge ran 26.2 miles in 1:59:40, breaking the two-hour marathon mark for the first time in history.

The 1:59 Challenge funded by INOES and Nike support took place in Austria on a closed course when every possible variable was controlled, such as:

His start-to-finish attempt to run a sub-two-hour marathon was profiled in the documentary Kipchoge: The Last Milestone.

🏃‍♂️Will Eliud Kipchoge win the Boston Marathon?

There's more obstacles to overcome at the Boston Marathon compared to Berlin or the custom-made course for the 1:59 Challenge:

For example:

  • Elevation gain. There's 891 feet of elevation gain on the 26.2-mile Boston Marathon course. While that might not sound like much, the Berlin Marathon only has 241 feet of elevation gain. And the 1:59 Challenge course was practically flat.
  • The weather. It's a wildcard for the Boston Marathon in the spring. Some years, it's been perfect weather with cooler temps. Other years it's been hot or rainy. Rain showers and 10-20 mph winds are in the forecast for race day.
  • Heartbreak Hill. It's a steep half-mile section of the Boston Marathon route that runners reach around mile 20 on tired legs. Kipchoge might charge up the hill like it's nothing. But this race has been won and lost on Heartbreak Hill more than once in 127 years.

Kipchoge's approach to winning: Only compete against yourself

"No human is limited." — World Marathon Record Holder Eliud Kipchoge

Even though Eliud Kipchoge has earned the title as the GOAT of marathon running by winning races and setting records over the past decade, he wants people to recognize anything is possible.

And the only person you should compete against is yourself.

Kipchoge knows success starts by making a decision to do whatever it takes to be your very best, even if that means learning from failure.

Whatever happens at the Boston Marathon on Monday, there's a lesson Kipchoge wants you to learn: "No human is limited."

🏃‍♂️Will Eliud Kipchoge win the Boston Marathon?

Weeviews predictions:

  • Yes. We predict Kipchoge will win the Boston Marathon. 
  • Why? He's won the last four marathons he's competed in since 2021 (NN Mission marathon, 2020 Summer Olympic Marathon, 2021 Tokyo Marathon, 2022 Berlin Marathon)
  • In the last two marathons, he finished faster than the Boston Marathon course record. (Tokyo 2:02:40; Berlin 2:01:09)
  • Will he set a new course record? That's hard to predict based on the weather and course profile. But we hope he does.
  • Fun fact: On Kipchoge's Instagram feed, someone recently posted a question in the comments: "So who do y’all think finishes 2nd?”

🏃‍♂️Will Eliud Kipchoge win the 2023 Boston Marathon?

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Evan Jensen
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I help RUNNERS reduce injuries, fix running form, run longer & faster by strength training without running ragged. I'm a NASM...


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