Frostbite 5K Prediction Race Review

It was a beautiful day for racing at SARC’s Frostbite 5K Prediction Race in Munroe Falls, Ohio.   The rules of the race are simple. Submit your predicted finish time during registration, no watches, timing devices, or pacing devices, run the 5K course, the finishers closest to their predicted time when the prizes.  I have competed in this race several times so my strategy in determining my predicted time was to take an average of my previous finish times.  I wanted to run at a pace slower than my normal 5K race pace but fast enough to get something out of the race.  I went with 24:15 as my predicted time which was a 7:50 mile pace.  

Race day weather was unusually pleasant with just a mild breeze and temps in the 30’s.  Typically this race features very cold temps, strong winds, and ice covered roads.  The mild (for February) weather conditions made for a little larger race field than the last few years with many last minute registrations.   

I was ready and excited for this my first race of 2023.  The gun sounded and I was off to a fast start which was my plan.   I was feeling good and happy to be racing.   I was immediately one of the faster runners with just 3-4 runners in front of me.  I knew I was running faster than my predicted pace but not knowing how fast I was going I just ran by feel.  I didn’t feel like I was pressing too hard but had know idea of my pace.   After the first lap of the two lap scenic course around the lake I could tell I was the 5th fastest runner in the field.   Knowing I was probably running too fast for my predicted time I slowed down on the hilly section of the course and tried to slow down even more the last quarter mile or so heading into the finish.  I was surprised to see my finish time of 21:50.  I was much too fast for trying to match my predicted time.

I think my strategy failed because I did not take into consideration the favorable race conditions this year compared to the usually horrible running conditions that slowed my times in previous years.  In any event, I really enjoyed the run and had a lot of fun.  I was over two minutes faster than my predicted time which placed me 35th overall in the results.   It was great to see three of our Team ER members placing in the top nine.  There where six of us there competing with all of us finishing faster than our predicted times.

Summit Athletic Runner’s Club, Josh Ritchie, Ritchie’s Sporting Goods, Mickey Ryzmek, North Coast Multisports, Jim Chaney, and all of the volunteers did a great job putting on a terrific event.  All runners received soft crewneck sweatshirts which were a throwback to one of the early years of the race.

I always enjoy running this race because of the unique format.  Predicting your finish time is not as easy as you would think and can be a nice change from the typical race format.